Google - The New Microsoft?

Andy Headington - 21st December 2004

For the last few years Google has been THE name in web search, but with so many companies battling it out to be top dog for search, we look at how Google will survive and what it will do to become the new Microsoft.

An introduction to Google

Google was born out of an idea from two Stansford university students Larry Page and Sergey Brin who used their knowledge of science and mathmatics to develop a way of indexing web pages using their own method based around a algorithm called 'Pagerank'. In the six years since Google was launched, it has turned from a niche website search tool to the de facto standard when searching the web (some of you may disagree but Google's market share is reportedly around 54%) and has got established companies such as Yahoo and Microsoft trailing in their wake.

Why is Google so far ahead of the competition?

As mentioned Google has been the leader in search since the turn of the century. It has been delivering relevant results, in the blink of an eye using its simplistic interface which means that you can find out literally anything in a matter of seconds. These results have been so good that one of their biggest rivals, Yahoo, used the Google search results up until a year ago when it dropped them to develop their own technology (link: Yahoo drop Google results). Since Yahoo and Microsoft have only just begun working on their own search technologies, the relevancy is not as good as it could be and has yet to mature (in fact, if you take a look at Microsofts beta version of search, it looks remarkably familiar).

Sure they can learn from Google's mistakes and can improve the way we search but to quote a famous beer commercial, they are just not ready yet. Additionally, as Microsoft and Yahoo are portals for information, they can be slow to load and even slower to find the information you need. Search is all about speed and relevancy, two things which Google excel in.

Can Google really be the new Microsoft?

Microsoft made their name by becoming known for one thing, software. Whether it was the Operating System or Office product range, people knew it and could rely on it. The same is true for Google. People can rely on it and when you ask someone to search for something, people now 'Google it'. Therefore I feel that the bold statement of Google becoming the new Microsoft could happen for the reasons shown below:

• Share floation

  Google floated on the American stock exchange in August 2004 and in doing so raised over $1.67 billion. This investment means that Google can solidify their position as number one and invest in future technologies for long term success.

• Diversification

  In the last 18 months Google has introduced other services to their portfolio ranging from the easy to use but slightly intrusive Gmail, Google's online email service which offers nearly twice as much space as it's rivals whilst being easier to use, to the desktop search tool, which allows users to easily search all of the documents contained on their PC. Other services are in the pipeline (personalised search and Google on your mobile) or are being dreamed up but how successful they will be, only time will tell.

• Brand

  Like any multinational company, one of Googles biggest assets is their brand. Although they have never seriously advertised themselves in the main stream press, everyone knows their name and what they can do. This struck me when listening the the radio recently, when the presenter used the phrase 'Google it' instead of 'searching'. The brand is synonymous with search and anyone who wants to turn this around will need to spend a huge amount in advertising or deliver an incredibly superior product.

• Partnerships

  During the last month, Google has announced that it is partnering with around half a dozen major Universities worldwide to allow all of the information which is locked in academic publications to be indexed and served to Google users. This will allow billions of pieces of information to be made accessible and again improve the usage figures for the leader in search.

What could go wrong...

Despite all of the positivity relating to Google and its success since the turn of the century, there are several threats which could hinder the growth of Google or could see it disappear almost as quickly as it was concieved.

• Privacy

  There are many people who are concerned about the privacy weaknesses Google has been showing in the last few months, either relating to the Google desktop search tool, Google's tracking of users behaviour or even more extreme ideas that Google might be working with the US Government. As Internet usage figures continue to rise, this will have to be looked at to reassure users that they are not being spied on.

• Microsoft

  Google may well own the search market for the time being but Microsoft still owns the desktop. As Microsoft pour more and more money into search techniques and research, the opportunity to integrate search results into the desktop at all levels is an opportunity too big to miss. Although there is now the Microsoft Desktop search, the biggest integration with search is likely to come in the next version of MS Windows, provisionally named 'Longhorn'. However, the success or indeed usefulness, of ubiquitous search on the PC has yet to be seen.

2005: The deciding year?

I've already covered a number of reasons as to why Google can become the next Mircosoft (and also some reasons why it might not) but industry experts are saying that this year will have a massive impact on the years to come (link: Google, Microsoft Showdown 2005) and I personally believe that there will only be one outcome (I'm not the only one: Search Wars Poll Results).

One thing is for sure, Google is here to stay.

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